Earnings Review: ASML Holding ($ASML)

Start of the memory super-cycle

In our earnings preview for ASML the day before yesterday, this was our take on what we expected from the results:

• ASML will cite improving demand for AI chips (compute and memory)

• ASML will guide to growth in 2026, and the stock will react positively to this

• Long-term (2030) outlook to remain the same

Overall, we expect ASML’s stock will react positively to the FY26 guidance and trade slightly up (~+5%) on the earnings report. There is no large upside catalyst that the market is ignoring, which will be revealed in the earnings.

As to what actually happened:

• Memory orders surged 186% to €2.54 billion (proving our memory hypothesis)

• Instead of stating explicitly that they are expecting growth in 2026, management hedged by saying “ASML does not expect 2026 total net sales to be below 2025.”

• Long-term outlook remained the same

The stock popped 4.5% after the company reported its earnings.

Now that the investor call is also over, let’s break down the key drivers from the latest report and what they mean going forward:

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