Visa and Mastercard , I heard on the real Steve Eismann playbook how good of a business these both are. Would be keen to get another persons insight as well.
Agreed stablecoins I don't think will ever be accepted by merchants. Especially since I believe the company operates from El salvador could be wrong however.
Never knew that ASML was a Dutch company (am Dutch myself), with such significant impact. You learn something new every day. Even though I voted for MRK, it would be interesting to see a deep dive on ASML as well. Good read as always!
Good question, I think the best way to answer it is to seperate two things when I look at Merck: FA (Fundamental Analysis) & TA (Technical Analysis)
Fundamental Analysis:
- Merck lowered their full-year EPS guidance multiple times for several reasons. Investors often see this as a negative thing. It is something to keep an eye on for sure, but I think you can also look at it from a different side. It can also say that Merck knows they are in a bit of rocky territory, they admit it by lowering EPS guidance and they are taking action (recent acquisitions).
- On the taking action part: Merck is investing heavily in their R&D department. We are talking about $30.5 billion in 2023, more than double of 2022. These are investments in important areas (also beyond oncology) where Merck can expand its pipeline. Of course, this is something that has no immediate returns and has to pay off long-term if we are talking about generating more revenue. I do think that it is something that needs to be taking into account.
Technical Analysis:
- If you look at the 1-week chart (I use that for long-term thinking), you see that Merck bounces of a major support line from April 2025 until now. You can trace that support range all the way back to 2020-2022. I think that is very important to notice. Price consolidating around that range of support says a lot about how low it wants to truly go.
- I think the RSI alone is not a good measure to predict future trends, but it does say something. The RSI here is currently 38 and below 30 is considered oversold. If we take this and the bounce of the support range into consideration it could mean that Merck hit a point where it wants to go up again.
Either ASML or Visa / MC. For the former, some have been saying the US should create an ASML; how effective is their moat? For V/MA, should we be viewing stable coins as threats or opportunities? Thanks!
Visa and Mastercard , I heard on the real Steve Eismann playbook how good of a business these both are. Would be keen to get another persons insight as well.
Yes, it's a fascinating duopoly. I don't think stablecoins are going to affect it in a significant way.
Agreed stablecoins I don't think will ever be accepted by merchants. Especially since I believe the company operates from El salvador could be wrong however.
Never knew that ASML was a Dutch company (am Dutch myself), with such significant impact. You learn something new every day. Even though I voted for MRK, it would be interesting to see a deep dive on ASML as well. Good read as always!
Whoa! It's blasphemy not knowing ASML being Dutch :)
Btw, why do you think Merck is a good deep dive? I don't think it has good potential.
Good question, I think the best way to answer it is to seperate two things when I look at Merck: FA (Fundamental Analysis) & TA (Technical Analysis)
Fundamental Analysis:
- Merck lowered their full-year EPS guidance multiple times for several reasons. Investors often see this as a negative thing. It is something to keep an eye on for sure, but I think you can also look at it from a different side. It can also say that Merck knows they are in a bit of rocky territory, they admit it by lowering EPS guidance and they are taking action (recent acquisitions).
- On the taking action part: Merck is investing heavily in their R&D department. We are talking about $30.5 billion in 2023, more than double of 2022. These are investments in important areas (also beyond oncology) where Merck can expand its pipeline. Of course, this is something that has no immediate returns and has to pay off long-term if we are talking about generating more revenue. I do think that it is something that needs to be taking into account.
Technical Analysis:
- If you look at the 1-week chart (I use that for long-term thinking), you see that Merck bounces of a major support line from April 2025 until now. You can trace that support range all the way back to 2020-2022. I think that is very important to notice. Price consolidating around that range of support says a lot about how low it wants to truly go.
- I think the RSI alone is not a good measure to predict future trends, but it does say something. The RSI here is currently 38 and below 30 is considered oversold. If we take this and the bounce of the support range into consideration it could mean that Merck hit a point where it wants to go up again.
Either ASML or Visa / MC. For the former, some have been saying the US should create an ASML; how effective is their moat? For V/MA, should we be viewing stable coins as threats or opportunities? Thanks!
I just looked up ASML $756 why the difference?
Its just the currency difference. The company is listed both in the U.S. and Amsterdam Exchange.